After weeks of missed rain chances, extreme fire danger, and an exploding drought, desperately needed rain is on the way. And this time, we expect more than just a trace in the tri-state area.
It has been an exceptionally dry fall. Season-to-date, Central Park is running nearly 9 inches below normal. And this is a trend seen across the region; every major reporting site in the tri-state is down over half a foot at least.
These deficits have led to expanding drought conditions, with most of the area now under a severe drought. Our area has not seen drought conditions this bad since 2002.
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This week’s rain won’t be the huge drought-buster that we need, but it will certainly go a long way to help alleviate some of the strain we are under. Expect a steady rain Thursday morning, with scattered light rain showers Thursday and again late Friday.
Most locations should get a half an inch to an inch of rain. Those north of the city, especially in Fairfield County and the Hudson Valley, could see more than that – up to 2 inches.
Thursday morning’s steady rain will happen along a cold front. Behind the front, cold air takes over -- but not freezing cold. In and around the Metro New York City area, temperatures will remain above 32 degrees, so anything that falls here will be rain.
In some parts of upstate New York, though, temperatures will hit freezing and this storm system could deliver some snow.
Very light snow could fall in parts of the Catskills, Poconos and northwestern New Jersey. This will not bring blockbuster snow to the Hudson Valley, but anywhere from flurries to an inch is not out of the question.
Another weather-maker is slated to move through next Monday, hopefully bringing us another chance for rain.
Like this week’s storm, it may not erase our rain deficit or the drought, but it would be nice to finally see a change in the same old (dry) pattern.
