The tri-state area enjoyed a snowy Winter Solstice this year, and now our attention turns to Christmas – and specifically, our chance of a White Christmas!
Certainly, our current cold snap is keeping us cold enough for snow. But White Christmases in New York City are hard to come by. It has been 15 years since we’ve had one. Unfortunately, it’s unlikely that Central Park will get one this year either, but there are parts of our area that will, thanks in large part to another clipper that will move through the tri-state on Christmas Eve.
The National Weather Service defines a “White Christmas” in any location as one with 1” of snow on the ground at 7 a.m. So flurries or a dusting of snow -- scenic as they may be -- are not enough to meet the requirements for a White Christmas.
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Our Christmas Eve morning will bring between 1 and 3 inches of snow to our higher elevations, especially to the Poconos and Catskills, while the rest of the area picks up an inch or less. Snowfall blanketed even parts of the city early Tuesday.
Just like Saturday morning’s clipper, this is going to be a fast-mover with limited moisture to work with. But it’s well-timed. It will move through early in the morning, while area-wide temperatures are still below freezing, so any snow that does fall will stick.
On the downside, Tuesday morning roads will be slippery for anyone driving to work or traveling for the holiday. Major highways should be well-treated and won’t pose too much of an issue, but smaller residential roads will be slushy and slick. Drive slowly and budget extra time to get to your destination.
Temperatures will climb above freezing across the tri-state Tuesday afternoon. For many, this will be our first time above freezing since last week. It also means that the snowpack will begin to melt.
And for some, it’ll be entirely gone Tuesday afternoon.
Areas far north and west of New York City, with several inches of snowpack to work with, will get to enjoy a White Christmas. Northwest New Jersey and The Poconos and Catskills Mountains are almost certain to have a White Christmas. Odds go down the closer to the coast you get.
In New York City, what little snow is on the ground Tuesday morning will be almost all gone by Christmas.
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Interestingly, the projected outlook for a White Christmas in 2024 follows very closely to our Climatological probability map for a White Christmas.
If you live in New York City, you have only a 13% chance each year for a White Christmas. Unless we get a big weather surprise before Wednesday, we’ll have to keep our fingers crossed for next year.
