The prolonged stretch of dry weather could be coming to an end in the tri-state this week, but it may still go down as one of the driest Septembers we've ever seen.
So far this September, most locations are running close to, if not exceeding, three inches below average in terms of precipitation. As of Tuesday, it’s been over two weeks since any measurable rain has fallen in Central Park, which has recorded just two days of measurable rain, totaling less than 3 tenths of an inch for the entire month.
And before that, you have to go back to August to find recorded rainfall.
There were a few teasing raindrops in the city (an unmeasurable "trace") on Monday. Rain totals were minimal, but it was enough to end a two-week dry stretch in Central Park.
An east-northeast wind keeps us cloudy and damp for the next few days with temperatures 5-10 degrees below average. This’ll be a great time to break out the fall sweaters if you’ve been holding off; temperatures will justify it.
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Shower chances increase slightly Wednesday. It’s far from a washout, but but pack an umbrella just in case you get caught in a passing shower. An isolated downpour isn’t out of the question, most of Wednesday’s rain will be light.
Thursday brings the best chance for rain this week. Rain chances pick up Wednesday night into early Thursday, so damp roadways for the morning commute could slow commuters down. Scattered showers will continue into the afternoon before tapering off.
Along with the higher rain chances, Thursday also brings higher temperatures. Thanks to a shift in wind direction from ENE to SE, highs will reach the mid 70s. That trend will take us into the weekend, which looks like a winner.
Though both Wednesday and Thursday look partially wet, the two days will feel quite different, thanks to the wind. Wednesday’s cool east wind will shift to more of a warmer southerly wind on Thursday. That comes with a 5 to 10 degree bump in temperature, jumping from around 68 degrees Wednesday to highs of around 77 degrees Thursday.
Despite having two days this week with possible rain, overall rainfall totals will be less than impressive – especially along the coast. It certainly won’t be enough to put a dent in our rainfall deficit this month.
The higher rainfall totals will stay north and west of the city, while NYC can expect less than half an inch. Further south and east, totals will struggle to get up to a tenth of an inch.
After Thursday, our rain chances shrivel through the end of the month, as high pressure settles over the Northeast. That means we’re in for mild and sunny weather by the weekend, which will continue into October.
Depending on exactly where the heavier pockets of rain set up, 2024 could end the month as one of the driest Septembers on record in Central Park. To land in the top 5, Central Park would have to accumulate less than a half inch of rain for the entire month; it has already accumulated .28 inches.
