Latest Forecast From Storm Team 4
After record-setting warmth last week – t-shirts and shorts weather in the 80s for many – get ready to break out your winter jacket Tuesday night.
Morning lows will be in the 20s and 30s in the tri-state area, with wind chills making it feel even colder.
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These will be the coldest temperatures of the season so far. We haven’t hit these numbers since late March in Central Park.
While temperatures like these are not unusual this time of year, coming off a stretch of very warm weather, the pending chill will be a shock to the system for many of us. And it will last for a couple of days.
You’ll need your winter coat through Friday morning.
If you’re not a cold weather lover, be patient. The core of the cold air will move out quickly.
By the weekend, temperatures will warm up to above-normal levels and you can pull out your lighter-weight jackets – or maybe just a sweater – for Saturday and Sunday afternoons.
Despite how cold it will feel, temperatures won’t quite make it to freezing in Central Park.
Most other areas in the tri-state have already hit 32 degrees (or close to it), which is climatologically what we would expect for this time of the year. The urban heat island effect keeps the city and its surrounding areas from cooling significantly overnight, which leads to a relatively late first freeze here compared with outlying areas.
Even though it tends to be later in the season, the climatological average date of Central Park’s first freeze is November 13 -- this Wednesday. It looks like we won’t quite make that date this year. And if we don’t, we’ll have to wait quite a while longer, because the forecast into next week is warmer than normal.
This is an ongoing trend. We’ve seen the first freeze occurring later in recent years, with 2023 taking until November 25. The latest first freeze on record for Central Park is December 22.
The warm weather in the extended forecast will continue our ongoing trend of warmer-than-normal weather that has dominated the tri-state area this year. And it won’t be limited to the Northeast.
The eastern two-thirds of the country will be warm. The warmth won’t be record-breaking -- we won’t see 70+ degree highs. Overnight lows will dip into the mid-40s, as opposed to the 30s we’ll see this week.
