Latest Forecast From Storm Team 4
September has been an unusually dry month. Only one day this month has Central Park recorded measurable rain, and that only added up to about a quarter inch.
Three weeks into September we should be closing in on three inches of total rainfall, about 2.7 inches in all – almost 10 times what we’ve gotten so far.
Central Park isn’t alone. From New Jersey to the Hudson Valley to Connecticut to Long Island, the entire area is running at least two inches below average rainfall this month.
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Month-to-date, 2024 is now our third-driest September. We haven’t seen a start to the month this dry in nearly 20 years, when Sept. 2005 similarly began with a quarter inch of rain. And that month ended with less than half an inch total.
There is still over a week to go in the month and it only takes one big rain event to erase the deficit, but the short-term forecast continues to look dry. No rain is expected this weekend. In fact, it’s not until the middle of next week that we begin to see decent rain chances. In the meantime, our deficit will continue to tick up.
The lack of rainfall has allowed for some truly lovely days this month. Nearly every day has brought blue skies and lots of sunshine.
But the lack of rain has also increased our drought threat. Nowhere in the tri-state is in a drought now, but if the dry trend continues, we will get there soon. South Jersey is most at risk for drought currently.
Part of the reason that we’re not in a drought is because August brought us rain totals well above average, so we started September with abnormally moist soil.
This extended dry period is especially worth noting as we look ahead to the changing of the leaves. Multiple factors contribute to the relative vibrancy of autumn leaves each year, but soil moisture is one of them. The other factors are mild, sunny days and cool nights, both of which have been abundant in September.
Soil moisture is the only factor we are lacking and this could lead to unwanted stress on the trees, especially if our dry weather continues through the rest of month.
It will still be a few weeks before we see the colors of peak fall, but it is going to feel like it starting this weekend. Temperatures are dipping into the lower 70s and upper 60s.
Then all eyes are on the end of next week. If we have any hope of ending this month with more rain than we started it, that will come with a cold front headed our way on Wednesday.
