Following a day of rapid intensification, jumping from a Category 1 storm to a Category 5 in a span of just 10 hours Monday, Hurricane Milton continued to churn toward Florida on Tuesday, remaining a powerful system that could bring life-threatening winds and storm surge.
At peak intensity, sustained winds were topping out at 180 mph and the minimum central pressure reached 897mb, the fifth lowest central pressure ever recorded in the history of the Atlantic Basin (only behind Wilma in 2005, Gilbert in 1988, the "Labor Day" hurricane of 1935, and Rita in 2005). Now Milton is heading toward the west coast of Florida, set to make landfall late Wednesday night.
The term “rapid intensification” refers to when a storm’s maximum sustained winds increase by at least 35mph within a 24-hour period. Milton rapidly intensified several times over throughout its development. But perhaps the most alarming stretch of intensification came when the system winds increased by 70 mph, double the “rapid intensification” threshold, in less than 12 hours.
While the storm briefly dropped down to Category 4 during the early afternoon, it later restrengthened and was back at Category 5 level with 160 mph sustained winds as of 11 p.m. Tuesday.
As Milton approaches Florida it will encounter greater wind shear and drier air, which is good news. These factors hinder a hurricane’s ability to grow and consequentially will contribute to some minor weakening of the system just prior to landfall.
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However, Milton is still forecast to remain a major hurricane when it makes landfall on Wednesday night, likely as a Category 3, which is considered very dangerous.
But even before Milton makes its official landfall, conditions will start to deteriorate across Florida starting Wednesday morning, when tropical storm force winds topping 70 mph arrive on the state's Gulf Coast. By the afternoon, hurricane force winds of 75 mph and above will arrive in western Florida as the tropical storm force winds hit on the east coast. And that is all before Milton’s eye crosses over land.
Local
Hurricane warnings are in effect from Cedar Key to Naples on the west coast and Jacksonville to Fort Pierce on the east, with tropical storm warnings covering the rest of the peninsula. Tropical storm watches are in effect for the east coast of Georgia and South Carolina as well.
Storm surge warnings are in effect from the Suwannee River to Flamingo on the west coast and from Jacksonville to Meritt Island on the east coast. Storm surge watches extend up along the east coast of Georgia and South Carolina.
The precise location of Milton’s landfall will impact exactly where the worst of the storm surge sets up, but the current forecast has a potential storm surge between 10 and 15 feet occurring between Anclote River and Englewood, including Tampa Bay. Even outside of the 10-to-15-foot forecast, these storm surges can be catastrophic. A slight shift in Milton’s track could even change where the worst of the surge is felt.
Further exacerbating the problem is the timing of Milton’s landfall. Right now, Milton is forecast to come onshore late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. This would put timing very close to high tide in places like Tampa Bay; and higher tides is the last thing Florida’s coast needs.
On top of the storm surge, Milton is expected to bring a substantial amount of rainfall to Florida. Totals will range between 5 and 12 inches for many, with some isolated totals nearing a foot and a half of rainfall.
That amount of rain can lead to an extensive amount of flooding including river flooding and flash flooding. Most of Florida and parts of Georgia are under flood watches.
And this is all coming to an area that has only just started its recovery from Hurricane Helene. The threat of any storm causing additional damage is terrible. But from a storm of Milton’s magnitude? Devastating.
