Hurricane Milton has been rapidly intensifying in the Gulf of Mexico, now seeing sustained maximum winds of 165 mph as of 10 p.m. on Monday. We have not seen a Category 5 storm this strong in October since Hurricane Wilma in 2005.
The powerful storm is heading for the west coast of Florida, set to make landfall as a major hurricane Wednesday evening or early Thursday morning, just two weeks after Hurricane Helene hit the same area.
On Monday, Milton went from a Category 1 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 90 mph to a Category 5 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 180 mph — all over the course of 12 hours. Maximum wind speeds have since gone down a bit, but are still considered extremely dangerous.
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The term “rapid intensification” refers to when a storm’s maximum sustained winds increase by at least 35 mph within a 24-hour period. Milton’s winds increased by double that threshold in less than half the time.
As a Category 5 storm, Milton is set to approach just north of the Yucatan Peninsula. Hurricane-force winds extend 30 miles from the center of the storm, while tropical storm-force winds extend out 80 miles from the center.
Storm surge up to 6 feet is expected in these areas. Rainfall accumulations between 2 and 4 inches are likely, with localized totals up to 6 inches. Hurricane and tropical storm warnings are in effect.
As the hurricane moves past the peninsula, Milton will encounter less favorable conditions for development as it approaches Florida. It will face strong wind shear and drier air, which will lead to some weakening of the system.
However, it is still forecast to remain a major hurricane when it makes landfall in Florida on Wednesday evening, likely as a strong Category 3.
Hurricane watches are already in effect from Cedar Key to Everglades City, with tropical storm watches extending north toward Apalachicola and south to the Keys.
Storm surge watches are in effect from the Suwannee River in the north all the way down to Flamingo in the south. Where Milton is expected to make landfall, the storm surge is forecast up to 12 feet, with Tampa Bay expected to see a surge between 8 and 12 feet. These are extremely dangerous, life-threatening conditions.
On top of the storm surge, Milton is expected to bring a substantial amount of rainfall to Florida. Totals will range between 5 and 10 inches for many, with some isolated totals exceeding a foot of rainfall.
This amount of rain can lead to an extensive amount of flooding including river flooding and flash flooding. Most of Florida is under a flood watch.
And this is all coming to an area that has only just started its recovery from Helene. The threat of any storm causing additional damage is terrible. But from a storm of Milton’s magnitude? Devastating.
