Latest Forecast From Storm Team 4
The new drought monitor is out and, unsurprisingly, it’s bad news for the tri-state.
Severe drought conditions have taken over the majority of the metro New York City area. The last time severe drought conditions were this expansive throughout the region was back in 2002. The worst drought conditions – extreme levels — are confined to South Jersey.
It’s been the same story all Fall: we’re not getting enough rain. And the longer this weather pattern persists, the more problematic it becomes. Unfortunately, there is little hope for improvement.
Rainfall over the past three months has been abysmal. Central Park has accumulated just 1.77 inches of rain. That is nearly 8.5 inches less than the season-to-date average.
And we expect this deficit to grow even larger before the season is over at the end of November.
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Local
The staggering lack of rainfall has taken its toll on local reservoirs. New York’s reservoirs, which provides water to nearly half the state including NYC, are running at a much lower capacity.
On average, the reservoirs operate at about 79% capacity; at present, they are operating at just under 62%. Levels for individual sites vary, but three of the seven locations are running at 50% capacity or lower, with the lowest at about 25%.
This growing strain on reservoirs is also seen in New Jersey. Reservoirs serving North and Central Jersey are experiencing moderately dry conditions with the problem likely to worsen quickly.
Normally, in late fall, reservoir levels begin to rebound thanks to fall and winter precipitation, but this year that appears unlikely. The trend is for reservoir levels to continue to go lower at least into December.
The trends are similar in other parts of New Jersey, especially in the southern part of the state. In Monmouth and Ocean Counties, the water supply is approaching the “extremely dry” category, which corresponds with the more intense drought conditions seen in that part of the state.
As a result of these lower water levels, city and state offices have issued their own drought alerts, urging government agencies, as well as residents, to reduce their water usage. For instance, NYC’s drought watch encourages residents to report any leaking hydrants to 311 while New Jersey’s drought warning suggests limiting showers to just five minutes. This is all in an effort to mitigate the exhaustion of our water resources during this extended dry period.
The last time New Jersey issued a drought warning was back in 2016 — and it lasted over six months. It is unclear exactly how long this one will last, but one thing is clear: We’re not getting a drought busting rain any time soon.
Shower chances over the next 10 days are minimal, with our best bet at getting a good amount of measurable rain not coming until late next week.
And even then, totals are not terribly impressive. On the generous side, parts of our area could see up to an inch of rain. But that is nowhere near enough to make any meaningful impact in our rain deficit. So expect conditions to get worse before they get better (or wetter).
