Latest Forecast From Storm Team 4
There is just over one month to go in meteorological winter, which began on Dec. 1st and runs until we transition to meteorological Spring on March 1st.
In November, Storm Team 4 discussed the global & seasonal features that would play the biggest roles in how our winter weather would play out this year.
The official winter outlook from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) indicated the East Coast will most likely be warmer-than-normal and wetter than normal thanks to an established El Niño driving the tropical Jetstream south enough to allow more storms in our area.
In any event, the wildcard is usually whether or not there is established enough cold to sustain snowfall as opposed to rain or even mixed precipitation.
So how is winter shaping up so far? Well, very warm & rainy — as promised by El Niño.
TEMPERATURES
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More than 75% of the month of December registered above average high temperatures. That’s 24 out of 31 days with warmer than normal high temperatures, compared with just seven that were colder than normal. Temperature trends for January have been far less lopsided, with a marked cold snap from the 15th to the 22nd. During this period, Central Park stayed below freezing for all but four hours during a seven-day stretch.
Local
Despite the cold spell, above average temperatures are still winning out for January as a whole. The average temperature for the month is running almost two degrees above normal, with 14 days of above average high temperatures compared to eleven days with below average highs.
PRECIPITATION
Meteorological winter has been quite active, with ten days of measurable rain in December totaling a whopping 6.71 inches in Central Park. That is more than two inches above the 4.38” that is considered normal for the month. This period included multiple severe flooding events, especially along some area rivers in New Jersey that stayed in moderate to major flood stage for several days.
January so far has been on a similar track with twelve days of measurable rain, totaling 3.98 inches. Normal month to date rainfall as of this writing is 2.85 inches, so we continue to exceed precipitation expectations in the tri-state.
But available moisture is just one ingredient of a healthy winter season. It needs to coincide with healthy doses of arctic air to make snow. We have seen all ingredients come together for some minimal snowfall in the city, but not enough to come close to our historically "normal" 6.3 inches of snow for the month of January.
WHAT'S NEXT?
While snow lovers in New York City may still be waiting for bigger, plowable snowfall, we haven’t given up hope just yet.
Climatologically, February is both our coldest and snowiest month with normal snowfall of about ten inches! In addition, most of the biggest snowstorms on record have come toward the end of the winter season – between late January and March. There are also signals that colder temperatures will come roaring back to end January and begin February, but whether all these ingredients come together at the right time to remains to be seen.
Longer term, the current outlook for the entire month of February calls for warmer-than-normal temperatures here in the Northeast. If you love snow, let’s hope the cold air at the beginning of the month comes with some decent snow, because winter’s days are numbered!
