It’s hard to believe, but hurricane season is right around the corner. Researchers at Colorado State University (CSU) released their initial outlook for the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season earlier this month, and they think it will be a busy one.
CSU is forecasting 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes. This is well above the seasonal average of 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes and would place the 2024 season as the third most active hurricane season on record, behind 2005’s 28 storms and 2020’s 30.
In fact, 23 exceeds number of names on NOAA’s 2024 list for tropical storms, meaning the supplemental name list might be needed this season, something that we have only have to do twice before.
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This robust forecast is attributed to two major factors: record high sea surface temperatures and an anticipated La Niña.
Sea surface temperatures in the eastern and central Atlantic Ocean are currently at record high levels, and that trend is expected to continue through hurricane season. The ultra-warm ocean water holds the energy that feeds tropical systems and provides a highly conducive environment for both their formation and intensification.
On top of warm ocean temperatures, knowing whether we will be in an El Niño or La Niña phase greatly influences the outlook of a hurricane season.
An El Niño weather pattern produces strong upper-level winds in the Atlantic, which tend to shear storms apart and stunt their growth if not kill them altogether. Conversely, La Niña is known for having much weaker upper-level winds and provides more favorable conditions for storm development.
Though we are currently in an El Niño, the forecast is for a La Niña pattern to develop in time for the peak of hurricane season. When tropical development is at its climatological height, developmental conditions are also predicted to be at their most ideal.
Of course, hurricane season is long and we are over a month away from the start; so the forecast could change. But as it stands right now, the season should be a busy one and certainly something to keep an eye on.
