Forecast for Geminid meteor shower: Will we be able to see the meteors?

The Geminid meteor shower is a favorite among stargazers. Under ideal viewing conditions, up to 120 of the bright meteors can be seen across the sky every hour. And this astronomical show is peaking Friday night into early Saturday morning.

In terms of cloud conditions, skies will be clear. This is thanks in large part to just how dry the air is; it’s great news for stargazers, bad news for dry skin.

But even with the clear skies, visibility won’t be ideal thanks to a nearly full December moon. Though the moon technically does not reach its fullest point until early Sunday morning, the difference in size to Friday night’s moon will be practically imperceptible.

The moon is the brightest natural object in the sky. As such, on clear nights like Friday, when the moon is full (or close to it) it produces a great deal of light. That light obstructs the view of other objects in the sky, like stars. Or meteors.

But don’t fret! Even with a luminous, nearly full moon in the sky, the Geminid meteor shower will still be bright enough to be seen with the naked eye. However, you will not be seeing 120 meteors an hour.

The intensity of each meteor varies, so while the brightest can still be seen under a full moon, the dim meteors will pass by unnoticed. As such, despite the clear skies you’ll want to manage your expectations. It is far more likely you’ll see closer to 15 meteors an hour. Patience will be key.

Temperatures, unfortunately, will not be on your side if you’re hoping to spend a lot of time scanning the skies. Friday night is primed to be our coldest night of the season so far, with temperatures dropping into the mid-20s for the city, the teens further north and west.

And you’ll want to be far from the city if you hope to see the meteors. The Geminids may be bright enough to overcome a full moon, but they’re still no match for light pollution. You’ll need to find a spot far from man-made light sources, with a wide view of the night sky. It’s also important to give yourself 20 to 30 minutes prior to viewing for your eyes to adjust to the darkness.

One major appeal of the Geminid meteor shower is that it begins earlier in the evening compared to others, meaning it can even be great for younger space-lovers. If you want the kids to see the Geminids, but don’t want to have to wake them up at 2 a.m. for “peak time,” you can see meteors as early as 9 or 10 p.m. Just make sure everyone is properly bundled up for the occasion.

Keep in mind: This meteor shower is called the “Geminid” because the meteors appear to be originating from the Gemini constellation. Gemini is relatively easy to spot in the sky thanks to its proximity to Orion, which has the three very identifiable stars that make up Orion’s belt.

But this is actually where you do not want to be looking.

The Geminids can be visible across the sky, so you should not limit where you’re looking. In fact, the meteors closest to Gemini will be among the hardest to spot.

This same idea applies when it comes to whether you’ll want a telescope or binoculars. You might think that having one of these would enhance your chances of spotting the Geminids. But because they can be spotted throughout the night sky, all a telescope would do is narrow your field of view, sharply decreasing the amount meteors you would end up seeing.

If all this talk of cold temperatures and a bright moon sounds a bit too discouraging for 2024, there’s always 2025. We can’t make any promises about the temperatures or cloud cover, but I know for a fact we won’t have a full moon next year. In fact, it’ll be a waning crescent by mid-December.