The Americans held back the tide.
A longstanding swimming rivalry between the United States and Australia appeared poised to have a new winner at the Paris Olympics.
While the U.S. has dominated in the pool throughout Olympic history, Australia has made up some serious ground over the last few Summer Games.
Team USA has finished with the most total swimming medals and most golds at eight straight Olympics, with Australia second in the medal count at five of those Games. That was the case three years in Tokyo, when Team USA took home 30 total medals and 11 golds to Australia's 21 medals and nine golds.
Australia was poised to shake things up in Paris, though, according to NBC's Steve Kornacki.
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As Kornacki explains in the video above, NBC Olympics' research projection model predicted that Team USA would earn more overall swimming medals, but that Australia would take home the most swimming golds at an Olympics for the first time since it hosted the 1956 Games in Melbourne.
After a slow medal start in the Paris La Defense Arena, Team USA had a lot of ground to makeup.
Through four full days of competition, the projections seem pretty spot on, with the U.S. having the overall advantage but Australia out in front with golds.
Kornacki even went as far as to call the U.S. the "underdog."
NBC Olympics projections entering Paris
| Medals | Team USA | Australia |
| Gold | 7 | 11 |
| Silver | 17 | 4 |
| Bronze | 5 | 7 |
| Total | 29 | 22 |
But swimming sensation Katie Ledecky still had two of her signature events, the 800-meter and 1500-meter freestyle. Plus, a handful of relay teams were ready to defend gold.
On the second to last day of competition, the Americans turned on the gas in the pool.
Ledecky swam to her fourth consecutive gold medal in the women's 800-meter freestyle and the team of Ryan Murphy, Nic Fink, Gretchen Walsh and Torri Huske set a world record in the mixed 4x100-meter medley relay. Those efforts brought the U.S. gold medal count in the pool to six.
It all came down to the final day of competition, when Australia led the U.S. in gold medals 7-6.
Swimming medal totals after Day 9 of Paris Olympics
| Medals | Team USA | Australia |
| Gold | 8 | 7 |
| Silver | 13 | 8 |
| Bronze | 7 | 3 |
| Total | 28 | 18 |
American swimmer Bobby Finke brought the gold medal count to a tie, as he defended his title in the 1500-meter freestyle and set a world record.
The U.S. and Australia were tied at seven gold medals apiece heading into the final swimming event of the Olympics: the women's 4x100m medley.
The team of Regan Smith, Lilly King, Gretchen Walsh and Torri Huske set a new world record of 3:46.63, breaking the last world record of 3:50.40 set by the U.S. at the 2019 world championships.
TEAM USA CLOSES IT OUT WITH A GOLD. 🥇👏
— NBC Olympics & Paralympics (@NBCOlympics) August 4, 2024
In the final swim of the #ParisOlympics, the United States DOMINATES the women's 4x100m medley relay! pic.twitter.com/ISAvsNwyef
The Americans finished with 28 total medals at these Games, two shy of their total three years ago in Tokyo. Australia came a bit shy of that number, earning 18 of their own.
The U.S. swimming team had its lowest victory total since the 1988 Seoul Games, when they were beaten by a doping-tainted East German program.
