How often do upsets happen in the first round of the NCAA Tournament?

One of the most maddening parts of March Madness is predicting where the upsets will happen.

Everyone knows they’re coming. Fans examine their brackets looking for double-digit seeds to become the next Cinderella team. But with just a one-in-9 quintillion chance of filling out a perfect bracket, it’s practically impossible to nail every pick.

Double-digit seeds are the biggest culprits of busting brackets. Which ones are most likely to pull off first-round upsets?

Here’s a look at first-round upsets by seeding matchup since the tournament field expanded in 1985:

How often do No. 16 seeds upset No. 1 seeds in the NCAA Tournament?

It’s the upset of all upsets, and it’s happened just two times.

University of Maryland, Baltimore County pulled off one of the most shocking results in NCAA Tournament history when it beat No. 1 Virginia as a No. 16 seed in the 2018 first round. The score was knotted at 21-21 at halftime, but the Retrievers went off in the second half on their way to a historic 74-54 victory.

Fairleigh Dickinson joined rarified air with its 2023 upset over top-seeded Purdue. Naismith National Player of the Year Zach Edey and the No. 1 Boilermakers were among the favorites to win it all, but it was the Knights that pulled off a 63-58 stunner.

UMBC and Fairleigh Dickinson are the only No. 16 seeds to ever beat a No. 1 seed since the field expanded to 64 teams in 1985. Entering the 2024 tournament, No. 1 seeds are 150-2 all-time against No. 16 seeds.

How often do No. 15 seeds upset No. 2 seeds in the NCAA Tournament?

Only 11 No. 15 seeds have ever reached the second round of the NCAA Tournament. From 1985 to 2023, No. 2 seeds were 141-11 against No. 15 seeds.

2012 is the only year to feature two No. 15-No. 2 upsets, as Lehigh shocked Duke and Norfolk State knocked out Missouri. A No. 15 seed has beaten a No. 2 seed in each of the last three years: Oral Roberts over Ohio State in 2021, Saint Peter’s over Kentucky in 2022 and Princeton over Arizona in 2023.

How often do No. 14 seeds upset No. 3 seeds in the NCAA Tournament?

Twice as many No. 14 seeds have advanced to the second round than No. 15 seeds.

No. 14 seeds are 23-130 against No. 3 seeds in the first round. Two such upsets have happened in the same tournament three times, and a No. 14 seed has won a first-round game in 20 of 39 tournaments since 1985.

Oakland (Michigan) is the last No. 14 seed to pull off the feat, doing so against John Calipari's Kentucky in the 2024 tournament.

How often do No. 13 seeds upset No. 4 seeds in the NCAA Tournament?

No. 13 seeds are a bit more likely to advance than No. 14 seeds, as they are 32-120 all-time against No. 4 seeds since 1985.

From 2018-2021, No. 13 seeds had almost a 50-50 chance of winning, going 5-7 against No. 4 seeds. After zero such upsets in 2022, Furman became the latest No. 13 seed to get past a No. 4 seed in the first round with a thrilling win over Virginia in 2023.

How often do No. 12 seeds upset No. 5 seeds in the NCAA Tournament?

We’re now entering the section of the first round where “upset” is more of a loose term.

No. 12 seeds have a 53-99 record against No. 5 seeds since 1985, good for a .349 winning percentage. In that stretch, all four No. 5 seeds moved on in the same tournament just six times.

Four No. 12 seeds have never advanced in the same tournament, but they’ve come close. Three No. 12 seeds beat No. 5 seeds in 2013, 2014 and 2019.

How often do No. 11 seeds upset No. 6 seeds in the NCAA Tournament?

No. 11 seeds are only slightly more likely to advance than No. 12 seeds all-time, but they are on a hot streak over the last five tournaments.

No. 11 seeds are 58-94 (.382 winning percentage) against No. 6 seeds since 1985. Since 2016, No. 11 seeds are actually more likely to win their opening games than No. 6 seeds, though, going 15-13 over that stretch. Going back even further, at least one No. 11 seed has upset a No. 6 in every tournament since 2005.

The 1989 tournament is the only one where all four No. 11 seeds won their matchups against No. 6 seeds.

How often do No. 10 seeds upset No. 7 seeds in the NCAA Tournament?

No. 10 seeds have beaten No. 7 seeds nearly 40% of the time, going 59-92 since 1985. No. 7 Oregon’s advancement past No. 10 VCU in 2021 occurred due to COVID-19 protocols and had a no-contest designation.

Like No. 11 seeds, all four No. 10 seeds have advanced in the same tournament just one time (1999). On the flip side, No. 7 seeds have swept No. 10 seeds in just two tournaments (1993 and 2007.)

How often do No. 9 seeds upset No. 8 seeds in the NCAA Tournament?

When it comes to No. 9 seeds against No. 8 seeds, it’s almost a complete toss-up with a slight advantage for the “underdogs.”

From 1985 to 2023, No. 9 seeds went 78-74 against No. 8 seeds. Recent history has been more favorable for No. 9 seeds, as well, with those teams going 17-11 in first-round games since 2016.

Editor’s note: An earlier version of this article was published in March 2022.