It's officially the busiest week of the MLB offseason.
Executives, players and agents are huddled in Nashville for the annual Winter Meetings. While the main event at in Music City is free agency, there are still plenty of other acts on the schedule -- including the MLB Draft Lottery.
The order for the 2024 MLB Draft will be determined on Tuesday, with all teams who missed the 2023 postseason eligible to receive the top pick.
Here's all the info you need to know for the draft lottery:
What is the MLB Draft Lottery?
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Like the NBA and NHL, a lottery is used to determine the top picks in each MLB Draft. So, rather than just using the reverse order of the standings from the previous year, teams have less incentive to intentionally tank games.
How does the MLB Draft Lottery work?
The top six picks in the MLB Draft are set by the lottery.
All non-playoff teams have a chance to receive a top-six pick, with odds decreasing as you move up the standings. The odds for the three worst teams are identical, a rule that was made to discourage tanking.
Once the top six picks are determined, the remaining non-playoff teams will ordered by inverse standings (worst remaining non-playoff team gets the No. 7 pick, best remaining non-playoff team gets the No. 18 pick). Playoff teams are ordered by when they were eliminated, with the Miami Marlins picking 19th and the World Series champion Texas Rangers picking 30th.
When was the first MLB Draft Lottery?
The first MLB Draft Lottery was held last year when the Pittsburgh Pirates were awarded the top pick. The lottery was implemented under the new collective bargaining agreement, which went into place in 2022 after a three-month lockout.
MLB Draft Lottery full odds, draft order for 2024
Here are the odds for each non-playoff team to win the draft lottery:
1. Oakland Athletics (50-112), 18.3%
2. Kansas City Royals (56-106), 18.3%
3. Colorado Rockies (59-103), 18.3%
4. Chicago White Sox (61-101), 14.7%
5. St. Louis Cardinals (71-91), 8.3%
6. Los Angeles Angels (73-89), 6.1%
7. New York Mets (75-87), 4.3%
8. Pittsburgh Pirates (76-86), 3.0%
9. Cleveland Guardians (76-86), 2.0%
10. Detroit Tigers (78-84), 1.6%
11. Boston Red Sox (78-84), 1.2%
12. San Francisco Giants (79-83), 1.0%
13. Cincinnati Reds (82-80), 0.9%
14. San Diego Padres (82-80), 0.7%
15. New York Yankees (82-80), 0.6%
16. Chicago Cubs (83-79), 0.4%
17. Seattle Mariners (88-74), 0.2%
18. Washington Nationals (71-91), 0.0%
The Nationals, despite finishing tied for the fifth-worst record, are ineligible to win the draft lottery because they are a "payor club." That means the club gave revenue sharing dollars rather than receiving, so they are not allowed to be selected in consecutive lotteries (they earned the No. 2 pick in 2023). The Nationals cannot receive better than the 10th pick under the CBA rules.
Here are the remaining first-round picks, which have already been set (teams eliminated in the same round sorted by revenue-sharing status):
19. Miami Marlins (.519 winning percentage), wild card elimination
20. Milwaukee Brewers (.568), wild card elimination
21. Tampa Bay Rays (.611), wild card elimination
22. Toronto Blue Jays (.549), wild card elimination
23. Minnesota Twins (.537), division series elimination
24. Baltimore Orioles (.623), division series elimination
25. Los Angeles Dodgers (.617), division series elimination
26. Atlanta Braves (.642), division series elimination
27. Philadelphia Phillies (.556), championship series elimination
28. Houston Astros (.556), championship series elimination
29. Arizona Diamondbacks (.519), World Series elimination
30. Texas Rangers (.556), World Series champion
How do I watch the MLB Draft Lottery?
The MLB Draft Lottery will be Tuesday, Dec. 5, at 5:30 p.m. ET, airing live on MLB Network.
What are the Yankees' odds for the MLB Draft Lottery?
The Yankees are facing long odds to land the top pick at just 0.6%. Due to exceeding the second competitive balance tax threshold, the Yankees' first pick will drop 10 spots -- unless they get a top-six pick. In that case, their second-highest pick would drop 10 spots. Here's the odds for the Yankees to land in each particular draft slot:
- First pick: 0.6%
- Second pick: 0.6%
- Third pick: 0.7%
- Fourth pick: 0.8%
- Fifth pick: 1.0%
- Sixth pick: 1.2%
- Not selected in lottery (pick drops 10 spots): 95.1%
What are the Mets' odds for the MLB Draft Lottery?
The Mets have better odds at being selected after finishing with a worse record, but they face the same competitive balance tax threshold penalty as the Yankees. Here's the odds for the Mets to land in each particular draft slot:
- First pick: 4.3%
- Second pick: 4.8%
- Third pick: 5.4%
- Fourth pick: 6.0%
- Fifth pick: 7.0%
- Sixth pick: 8.2%
- Not selected in lottery (pick drops 10 spots): 64.3%
