There are four drivers in the 2023 NASCAR Championship 4. Here’s what each driver needs to do to win plus Nate Ryan, NASCAR on NBC writer and host, gives his predictions.
The 2023 NASCAR season is coming to an end. But before everyone goes home for winter break, it’s time to crown a new champion.
Phoenix Raceway will host the NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race to wrap up the 10-race playoffs.
The 312-mile race will air live on NBC and Peacock at 3 p.m. ET, with pre-race coverage beginning at 2 p.m. ET.
Who is competing for the Bill France Cup? And how do the four competitors stack up? Here are the answers to all your questions about the Championship 4, with help from NBC Sports’ Nate Ryan to break it all down:
Who is in the NASCAR Championship 4 and how does it work?
Kyle Larson, Christopher Bell, Ryan Blaney and William Byron qualified for the Championship 4.
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There will still be 36 drivers competing in the race at Phoenix – but only those four are championship-eligible. Whoever crosses the finish line first among them after 312 laps will be crowned the 2023 NASCAR Cup Series champion.
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How did those drivers qualify for the Championship 4?
Larson was the first driver to make the Championship 4 after winning the Round of 8 opener at Las Vegas Motor Speedway on Oct. 15. Larson will be making his second Championship 4 appearance after winning the title at Phoenix in 2021.
Bell was the second driver to qualify after winning the Round of 8 race at Homestead-Miami Speedway on Oct. 22. This is the second straight year that he qualified for the Championship 4 after winning in the Round of 8.
Blaney joined Larson and Bell as winners in the Round of 8, taking the checkered flag at Martinsville Speedway on Oct. 29. In his fifth Round of 8 appearance, Blaney finally advanced to the title race for the first time in his career.
Byron, despite his dominant regular season, was the fourth and final driver to clinch his Championship 4 spot. He did so based on the standings, finishing eight points ahead of fifth-place Denny Hamlin. Like Blaney, Byron is making his Championship 4 debut – which Ryan believes could put them at a disadvantage.
“I think it's going to be difficult for Ryan Blaney and William Byron on that front, because they haven't been here before,” Ryan explained. “For Christopher Bell, who was there last year, and Kyle Larson, who won the championship in 2021, they have some familiarity of what this week is like, what the cadence is like. And they've both been in the Championship Round in Phoenix at this track in particular. So I think that could be an advantage for them.”
Kyle Larson: Phoenix stats, championship outlook
Larson’s stats at Phoenix Raceway: 18 starts, 1 win, 7 top-fives, 11 top-10s, 6.4 average start, 11.7 average finish, 382 laps led
Larson’s last Phoenix start (March 2023): Started first, finished fourth, 201 laps led
Larson’s championship outlook: The 2021 Cup champion is looking for a second title. While he hasn’t been nearly as dominant this season as he was two years ago, Larson should be confident entering Phoenix. He won at Las Vegas, which gave crew chief Cliff Daniels two weeks to start looking ahead to Phoenix without worrying about the last two races in the Round of 8.
“He’s also got the benefit of having won the opener of the Round of 8, which he also did in 2021,” Ryan explained. “Of course, he won the championship that year. So, that should be an advantage. He probably is the betting favorite coming in, or should be. He's had tremendous speed all season long.”
Even with the speed that Ryan described, the team has been hampered by various mistakes. Larson has eight DNFs this season – second-most among the 32 full-time drivers.
“Really, he should have probably four or five more victories than he does,” Ryan said. “Some of it was his mistakes, some of it was crew mistakes, some of it was circumstantial. But I think that is the key to Kyle Larson winning the championship. I don't think there's any question he's going to have the speed. I think it's, ‘Can he avoid the mistakes that he in particular has made this year?’ We saw it most recently at Homestead-Miami Speedway, the mistake he made coming into the pits trying to beat Ryan Blaney to get that win. He'll need to avoid that at Phoenix in order to win his second title.”
Larson’s teammates could play a role in him winning a second title, with Ryan referencing what Alex Bowman did in 2021 as a key factor for the No. 5 team.
“Think back to 2021 during this practice where Kyle Larson was able to have Alex Bowman do some of the work that they wanted to do in practice, but ran out of time to do,” Ryan explained. “Alex Bowman made a mock qualifying run for Kyle Larson. What Bowman did in practice, Larson used that in his qualifying run to win the pole position, get the most important pit stall, win the race and the championship on a pit stop.”
Christopher Bell: Phoenix stats, championship outlook
Bell’s stats at Phoenix Raceway: 7 starts, 0 wins, 0 top-fives, 4 top-10s, 10.0 average start, 14.4 average finish, 0 laps led
Bell’s last Phoenix start (March 2023): Started fifth, finished sixth, 0 laps led
Bell’s championship outlook: In just his fourth Cup season, Bell has now made consecutive Championship 4 appearances. The 28-year-old Oklahoma native finished 10th (third among title contenders) at Phoenix last fall amid heartbreaking circumstances for Bell and his Joe Gibbs Racing team.
“I think for Christopher Bell, it's just going to be a calmer race day,” Ryan said. “Unfortunately, his first Championship 4 appearance was marred by the fact that the team learned of the death of (team co-owner) Coy Gibbs that morning. That made it extremely difficult for Christopher Bell to compete for the title last year and to really have a normal championship day.”
With hopefully a smoother weekend ahead in 2023, Bell can focus solely on winning his first title. He has victories this season at a dirt track and a 1.5-mile speedway – a unique versatility that Ryan believes will help him at Phoenix.
“We've seen it this year. – he's so talented,” Ryan said. “He's so good at adapting to whatever race track that you put him on. He seems extremely confident. After Martinsville, he said he was going to have a rocketship for Phoenix. It's hard to look at Christopher Bell and say what he needs because I feel like he's so overshadowed a lot of time.
One potential deterrent for Bell is his pit crew, which has been under fire all season. JGR made changes to the personnel ahead of the playoffs, though there were still mixed results over the last nine weeks.
“Pit stops have been a problem for this team throughout the year, but it seems like they sort of figured that out the second half of the playoffs, or at least gotten to where it doesn't hamper them from contending,” Ryan said. “... They made some personnel changes on that crew before the playoffs. They didn't really work the first few races. It's gotten better, but he'd be the team I might be most concerned about in terms of pit stops.”
Ryan Blaney: Phoenix stats, championship outlook
Blaney’s stats at Phoenix Raceway: 15 starts, 0 wins, 6 top-fives, 10 top-10s, 5.5 average start, 11.9 average finish, 429 laps led
Blaney’s last Phoenix start (March 2023): Started eighth, finished second, 0 laps led
Blaney’s championship outlook: No driver is hotter than Blaney right now. He won his way into the Championship 4 by winning last weekend – catching fire similar to how his teammate Joey Logano did at the end of last season after a subpar regular season. Logano, of course, won the title at Phoenix last November – a race where Blaney was also in contention but opted to play the wingman role.
“He's been so strong at Phoenix the last few years,” Ryan said. “He finished second to Joey Logano in the 2022 Championship Race. He might've won that race if it wasn't Logano, I think he might've forced the issue a little bit if it hadn't been a teammate. He had winning speed. So I don't think there's any question about the car. It's just a question of can the driver maintain what we've seen from him the last five weeks, which is championship caliber performance.”
The last five weeks has arguably been the greatest stretch of Blaney’s eight full-time Cup seasons. He won at Talladega before finishes of 12th, sixth, second and then another win at Martinsville. His path to a title is simple – keep it up.
“I think Ryan Blaney wins the championship if we just see more of what we saw in the Round 8,” Ryan said. “... He's always been on the cusp of showing he can be a consistent superstar in the Cup Series. And we saw it in the Round of 8, finishing sixth, second and first after coming off the win at Talladega in the Round of 12. He seems like he’s in his sweet spot as a driver.
“He and crew chief Jonathan Hassler talked a lot about how, during the offseason, they worked on his mental approach. Those mistakes that cost him a trip to Phoenix last year when he had crashes in the Round of 8 or he sped in the pits. They've eliminated that. Clearly Ryan Blaney has worked on improving the cerebral side of his game and staying focused and not getting distracted by things, not letting his emotions get the best of him behind the wheel.”
William Byron: Phoenix stats, championship outlook
Byron’s stats at Phoenix Raceway: 11 starts, 1 win, 1 top-five, 6 top-10s, 11.3 average start, 11.9 average finish, 91 laps led
Byron’s last Phoenix start (March 2023): Started third, finished first, 64 laps led
Byron’s championship outlook: While Byron has had the best season of any driver, he enters Phoenix with the least momentum after not winning in the Round of 8. He gutted out a 13th-place finish at Martinsville to advance – his worst finish in a race since Sept. 10.
“Selective memory is the key for William Byron,” Ryan said. “After the Round of 8 that he had, and especially the Martinsville race, the team just has to just put that out of their mind and think, ‘Hey, we've won at Phoenix. We know we can go there and win again. We got the most victories in the Cup Series this season. We've been proven winners.’ And I think that the No. 24 team and William Byron have shown the ability to do that this season.
“... He and crew chief Rudy Fugle clearly are on the same page. They really like each other. They have a great working relationship. So I think they're in a really good spot where they should be able to just put Martinsville behind them and focus on Phoenix. If they're able to do that, there's no reason they shouldn't have a chance to win.”
Byron, who won at Phoenix in March, should theoretically have confidence heading to the desert. But, as Ryan explained, things change quickly in NASCAR – so a win nearly eight months ago might not mean quite as much as one might think.
“I don't think it's necessarily a 100% accurate parameter,” Ryan said when asked about March’s race. “We hear drivers and teams say this all the time that so much can change on setups week to week, race to race, that even if you've run well with a track on the first visit, if you go back several months later – the weather is different, teams have found new tricks in their cars.
“... So, I don't think you can be William Byron or even Kyle Larson and say, ‘Well, we kind of dominated that race earlier this year. We should be looked at favorites for the championship race based on historical performance.’ I don't think it works that way. I think that it's definitely an indicator. All four of these drivers can look back at what they've done at Phoenix and say, ‘We're going to run well here based on our history.’ But I don't think you can say that William Byron, by virtue of having won Phoenix the first time, is a favorite going into this race.”
NASCAR Championship Race predictions, picks
All four drivers have a legit case to be the 2023 champion. Three of them won their way into the title race, while the fourth (Byron) has more wins than anyone this season.
When picking a champion in this format, it often comes down to one question: What have you done for me lately? While Byron has been the best driver from start to finish in 2023, he enters Phoenix after a discouraging Martinsville run. Bell, meanwhile, enters Phoenix as the lone Toyota driver for the second straight year – and he has the worst Phoenix stats of these four.
Ryan believes the title fight will come down to Larson and Blaney – with the past champion holding the edge over the Championship 4 newcomer.
“I'd go with Kyle Larson – not just because he's got the two-week head start, but also just because he's had all this speed all year, we've been talking about him all year,” Ryan said. “... There are a lot of elements here that are kind of synthesizing for Kyle Larson to emerge as the champion. But if I had to pick a runner-up, it would probably be Ryan Blaney. It's tough to pick against the hot streak and how good he's been at Phoenix.”
