NYC releases new climate projections: Here's what to expect

New York City is on track for more intense rainfall, flooding and heatwaves, according to the latest report by the Mayor's Office of Climate and Environmental Justice (MOCEJ) and the New York City Panel on Climate Change (NPCC).

The NPCC is an independent advisory board that analyzes local environmental impacts, recommending actionable policy and climate-based solutions.

The fourth and new assessment was released on Monday, and it projects that the city will be warmer with an increase in frequency and duration of hot days, as well as increased risks from rainfall and groundwater flooding.

"We have already seen about a foot of sea level rise since 1900 in New York City, and now in the next 25 years by 2050, that might be a foot and a half to two feet higher, so what took 100 years to do is now only taking 25 years to do," said Mayor’s Office of Climate & Environmental Justice Executive Director Elijah Hutchinson during a previous interview with NBC New York.

By the end of the century, New York City could see up to 30% more annual rainfall, based on the report. Sea levels are projected to rise as much as five feet by 2100.

During Hurricane Ida in 2021, at least 13 deaths were reported in the boroughs, most of whom drowned in basement apartments. Besides devastating lives lost, property damage and stemming mental health issues, stormwater and sewer overflow harm New Yorkers with contaminated waters.

Dr. Radley Horton is a research professor at Columbia University Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory who warns similar storms like Hurricane Ida are becoming more common.

"The worst, rainiest day of the year now contains about 50% more rainfall than it did just a couple of generations ago," Dr. Horton told NBC New York.

Topography, historic stormwater flow paths, and subsurface conditions are some factors that make a zip code most vulnerable to extreme rainfall, including areas low-lying and inland. Southeast and Central Queens, North Staten Island and Southeast Bronx are the most at-risk in the city for dangerous flooding.

By the 2050s, the MOCEJ estimates the next major hurricane, similar to Sandy in 2012, could cost $90 billion in damages and economic loss, nearly five times the previous impact.

On average, there are about 370 heat-related deaths in the city per year, according to the report, leaving high temperatures to be the leading cause of weather-related deaths, even across the country.

Hutchinson says low-income, environmental justice communities are the most endangered, and within all heat-related city deaths last year, those apartments did not have air conditioning.

"About 25% of some neighborhoods in NYC don't have access to air conditioning, which is a huge problem when we have temperatures rising to the degree that they are," Hutchinson said.

Initiating climate solutions, like expanding green spaces, rethinking land use, zoning, and guidelines for construction are all aspects on Hutchinson's mind when thinking about taking action on what's next.

Hutchinson believes the green economy in the city is "set to boom, accounting for seven percent of NYC workforce by 2040" which is a tripling a jobs representing nearly $90 billion in gross domestic product.

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Chasing Our Climate: On the Frontlines is a 30-minute documentary sequel that focuses on the weather disruptions after a tumultuous year, including the devastating Canadian wildfires and Hudson Valley flooding, while featuring New York and New Jersey climate heroes who rush toward danger in order to save our communities.

Chasing Our Climate is an NBC New York special that first aired in 2022 during the 10th anniversary of Hurricane Sandy. The four-part series highlighted dozens of tri-state leaders and nonprofits finding solutions to lessening the carbon footprint, including the NYC Department of Sanitation and the Billion Oyster Project. Watch the first part here.