Do Amber Alerts really bring missing children home?

When a child goes missing, you expect authorities to use every tool at their disposal to bring that child home. 

More often than not, however, families are forced to face the harsh truth that this isn’t the case — and Prince McCree’s family was no exception. 

When 5-year-old Prince went missing in Milwaukee on Oct. 25, 2023, local law enforcement requested an Amber Alert to spread the details of Prince’s disappearance to the public. The Wisconsin Justice Department turned down their request, deciding that the 5-year-old did not meet the criteria of an alert: Not enough was known about the suspect. 

Prince was found dead in a Milwaukee dumpster the next day, just months away from his kindergarten graduation.

Of the more than 350,000 children who went missing in 2023, Amber Alerts were only issued for 229 — less than 1%. They are reserved for what alert coordinators deem as only the most serious of abduction cases, leaving some families to wonder why their pain was not "critical enough."

Who is Amber?

Nine-year-old Amber Hagerman was abducted while riding her bicycle and murdered in Arlington, Texas, in 1996. Her body was found four days later, her throat slashed. 

Moved by Amber’s story, a local resident reached out to a Dallas-Fort Worth radio station and proposed that when a child abduction occurred, local radio stations should alert the public so they can send tips to law enforcement. That same year, the Amber Alert — Amber being short for “America’s Missing: Broadcast Emergency Response” — was born. 

Alerts are now broadcasted in all 50 states. When issued, they appear on digital billboards, radios, televisions, Department of Transportation highway signs and cell phones. Organizations like the National Center for Missing and Exploited Children amplify the alert to platforms like Google, Instagram, Facebook and X.

What determines whether an Amber Alert will be issued? 

While specific criteria varies by state, the Department of Justice recommends the following guidelines:

• There is reasonable belief by law enforcement that an abduction has taken place;
• There is enough descriptive information about the victim and the abduction to put out to the public;
• The abducted child is aged 17 years or younger;
• The child’s name and other critical elements have been entered into the National Crime Information Center system; and
• Law enforcement believes that the child is in imminent danger of serious bodily injury or death. 

The last criterion is the most important, according to John Bischoff, vice president of the National Center for Missing and Exploited Children's Missing Children Division.

Only regional or state coordinators, following the guidelines above, can issue Amber Alerts. State agencies differ in their age thresholds for what is considered a “critical” case, meaning that a missing child treated as a low-priority case in one state could be considered high-risk by law enforcement in another. 

Though it is perhaps the most high-profile, the Amber Alert is only one of many tools used in finding missing children, according to Chanel Dickerson, former assistant chief of police at the Metropolitan Police Department in Washington, D.C. News coverage and social media have become powerful tools in bringing children home.

During her time as commander of the Youth and Family Services Division, Dickerson changed the department policy so that flyers of missing children would be disseminated within 24 hours of any reported case — no exceptions, regardless of whether the case was "critical" or merited an Amber Alert.

"I wanted equality to ensure that every missing person in D.C. received the same level of [attention]," Dickerson said. "Not just in the investigative efforts from law enforcement officers, but [also] from the media."

However, not all departments have made that call and maintain discretionary notification policies. Amber Alerts are one of the only guarantees of having a case reported to the media.

How effective are Amber Alerts, really?

As of 2023, 1,200 children have been recovered through Amber Alerts, according to the National Center for Missing and Exploited Children. Last year alone, 185 alerts were issued involving 229 children, with 183 cases resulting in a recovery. 

Texas issued 26% of all Amber Alerts last year with 49 cases, followed by North Carolina with 17 cases and Ohio with 13. 

This disproportionately large number can be attributed to Texas’ size and a new state law, Bischoff said. The "Athena Alert" bill, signed in 2023, allows law enforcement to request an Amber Alert even if the alert criteria have not been verified.

Of the 183 Amber Alert cases that led to recovery in 2023, 49 were a direct success as a result of the alert, totaling to a 26% success rate. One in four of these successes were due to individuals spotting the vehicle described in the alert. 

Amber Alerts can also act as a deterrent: in 11 of the 49 successful cases, abductors released the child after hearing the alert go off. 

Despite the successes, there is “just no reason to believe the system is effective,” according to Timothy Griffin, an associate professor of criminal justice at the University of Nevada, Reno. 

Griffin, who has studied Amber Alerts for nearly two decades, called the alerts “crime control theater.” 

“Public safety agencies … want as many positive things as possible to be out there to the public," Griffin said. "And what could be better than protecting children?”

Through his research, Griffin found that the relationship of the abductor to the child — not whether an Amber Alert was issued — was the biggest predictor in whether or not a child would be recovered safely. 

Even in cases where Amber Alert children are recovered, Griffin questioned whether the child was actually in “imminent harm” and was “saved” by an alert. In most of these successful rescues, the abductor is usually a family member who does not mean “any kind of serious harm to the victim,” Griffin said. 

Family abductions made up 59% of the Amber Alerts issued in 2023.

“If you look at those 75% of cases where an Amber Alert did nothing, 90% of those kids are unharmed,” Griffin said. “That tells you … that it’s probably not the Amber Alert that got [the child] home alive. It’s probably because they were never in any real danger.” 

Cases like Amber's murder in 1996, he added, are "black swan homicides": the kind of crime so horrific that it garners enormous attention, but is extremely rare.

And in cases where there is a real threat, Griffin said Amber Alerts are typically not issued quickly enough to prevent that harm from happening. 

FBI research found that 74% of children are murdered within three hours of their disappearance. Those first three hours are the "most crucial window of time for an initial response," according to the Department of Justice.

In 60% of known cases in 2023, Amber Alerts took longer than three hours to be activated.

However, these studies have the benefit of hindsight — something police don’t have when approached with a case, Bischoff said. 

“Law enforcement officials have to make a judgment call with what they have in front of them,” Bischoff said. “If they have information that meets the level of an Amber Alert, they’re certainly [going to] activate that. If it doesn’t meet the level of an Amber Alert … the investigation moves forward as a critical investigation. Everyone is still focused on finding this child with a whole other array of tools and resources.” 

He said he does not believe that the importance of Amber Alerts is overstated.

“It’s not used in every missing child case, but when it is, it’s a very effective tool,” Bischoff added. “I have over 1,200 children who would beg to differ with those [questioning its effectiveness].”

Black and Missing co-founder Derrica Wilson agreed, saying that while it is difficult to attribute a successful recovery directly to an Amber Alert, the alert is a “contributing factor” that instills vigilance in the public.

Still, its relative importance as a tool may be overstated, Griffin said.

The race factor of missing children

When Peas in their Pods — an organization focusing on missing children of color — was founded in 2007, about 33% of all missing children were children of color, according to the non-profit's president, Gaétane Borders.

Today, that percentage has increased to nearly 40%, according to Black and Missing. Despite only 12% of the population being Black, Black children made up about 33% of those missing.

Yet awareness of this disproportionate threat to communities of color is still low. 

“If you were to walk down the streets of New York and ask people to name three missing children of color, they probably would not be able to do so,” Borders said. “Children of color are not represented as much in popular media … which means the likelihood that [people will] be able to help diminishes.” 

This also decreases the awareness of risks like trafficking within vulnerable communities of color, Borders said. 

“Traffickers look for vulnerable populations,” she added. “The apathy towards missing children of color, the lack of attention — predators know this. They take advantage of it.” 

It may also be more difficult to get an Amber Alert issued for a Black child due to labeling.

Black children are disproportionately classified as "runaways," a label that precludes them from being issued an Amber Alert. The term "runaway" is also commonly associated with criminal activity, according to Wilson.

“Black families are not always believed,” Borders said. “It’s bad enough that their child is missing. But when it’s time for the police report, it’s [almost] automatic that their child is listed as a runaway, whether or not the facts point in a completely different direction.”

Phylicia Barnes was one of those children. The 16-year-old from North Carolina went missing in December 2011 while visiting family in Baltimore, Maryland. Police listed her as a runaway, despite the fact that her phone, coat and shoes had been left behind and temperatures outside were freezing. 

Her body was found in the river a few months later. 

Barnes’ story is only one of many, and it has prompted those working with missing children of color to call for change. 

“Race, gender and ZIP code should not be a barrier to resources [like the Amber Alert],” Wilson said. 

Amber Alerts are not 'magic'

Griffin said an inflated perception of the Amber Alert’s effectiveness has led families to have unrealistic expectations.

“There would not be this kind of outrage about Amber [Alert] failures if people had a more honest understanding from our public safety officials about what it really has and has not accomplished,” he said.

Many families think the alert is "like magic," Borders said — and she did too, before she began her advocacy work.

“I just assumed that you report a child missing, and then the helicopters would just swoop in with the spotlights," she added. "To [those families], it definitely seems like it’s a sure shot that there’s more people looking. More people will help.” 

Amber Alerts are also featured in TV shows and movies, according to Bischoff, leading the public to view the alert in “certain optics that are not always true.” 

“I think there is somewhat of a misconception by the public that without the Amber Alert, their child is worse off,” he said. “That is absolutely not the case.” 

A discourse shift could help the alert be used more effectively, Griffin said.

But even if public perception of the alert’s effectiveness aligned with its actual rate of success, families of missing children will still fight to get the alert, according to Borders: They would take the 25% odds over no attention at all.

“I think that in their time of need, they just want to feel like the nation cares,” she said. “For most families, the Amber Alert is the greatest symbolic way for the nation to show that they care.”