South Fork Wind offers a glimpse at what's possible as offshore wind power projects struggle to gain traction

• South Fork Wind, 35 miles East of Montauk, New York, is the first commercial-scale offshore wind project in the U.S.
• Orsted built the wind farm, which has 12 turbines that can power 70,000 homes annually.
• The Biden administration has a target of 30 gigawatts of offshore wind power by 2030, but rising interest rates and supply chain hurdles have hit the industry.

GREENPORT, N.Y. – Roughly 35 miles off the east coast of Montauk, New York, 12 turbines gently spin in the wind at Orsted's newly developed South Fork Wind farm. The project, which connected to the grid earlier this year, is the first commercial-scale offshore wind farm in the U.S., providing enough power for 70,000 homes annually.

It's a needed bright spot for the U.S. offshore wind industry, which has faced a number of challenges getting off the ground. Rising interest rates and supply chain snags have changed project economics, forcing some developers to return to the market in search of higher contracted prices. Other projects have been canceled entirely.

Soren Lassen, head of offshore wind research at Wood Mackenzie, said the U.S. offshore wind industry is going through a needed readjustment, and that while the long-term outlook remains intact, progress has been pushed out. South Fork Wind offers tangible evidence that wind projects can work.

A long-term investment

Traveling by way of a high-speed ferry from Greenport, New York, it takes about two hours to get to South Fork Wind. It's hard to get a sense of just how large these turbines are until you're right under one: they tower 460 feet above the water, with blades that are each longer than a football field. And that's just what the eye can see. Underwater, each tower sits atop a custom foundation drilled into the seabed. Apart from the gentle "swoosh" of the blades – only audible when right next to the turbine – the wind farm is otherwise quiet in the middle of the ocean.

Each turbine is connected to an offshore substation – the first of its kind built in the U.S. – which is connected to the local power grid in East Hampton, New York, via a 65-mile subsea and underground cable.

South Fork Wind was not without opposition. The waters off the Long Island coast have long been a place for recreational and commercial fisherman alike, some of whom opposed the project. Residents in Wainscott – the summer community where the cable comes ashore – also fought it. This led to Orsted adding extra space between each turbine so that the area remains open both to transit by pleasure and fishing boats, and the company buried the onshore cable beneath the beach and local roads.

Denmark-based Orsted is not new to the area. The company developed the five-turbine Block Island Wind Farm, which is northwest of South Fork Wind, in 2016. And northeast of South Fork Wind sits Revolution Wind – a 65-turbine project that Orsted broke ground on in 2023. In July, Orsted began construction on Sunrise Wind, which is also in federal waters off the New York coast.

Offshore wind projects are long-term investments, with work starting years before a single foundation is even drilled into the seabed. Securing the necessary permits is a lengthy process.

The Bureau of Ocean Energy Management first awarded the leases for South Fork Wind in 2013, which where acquired by Deepwater Wind. Orsted acquired the company in 2018 and partnered with Eversource Energy to start building the project. Onshore construction began in February 2022, with offshore construction following in 2023. In September, Skyborn Renewables, a Global Infrastructure Partners portfolio company, acquired Eversource's 50% stake in both South Fork Wind and Revolution Wind.  

Offshore wind developers typically use power purchase agreements, which are signed ahead of construction. Put simply, it's a long-term agreement between the owner and a third party who agrees to pay a specific price for the power – oftentimes for 20 years or more. At South Fork Wind, the power is being sold to Long Island Power Authority.

While this model provides long-term certainty, it can also be a huge obstacle if project costs balloon. Orsted is developing Revolution Wind and Sunrise Wind, but last year it walked away from Ocean Wind 1 and 2, which were slated to be built off the coast of Atlantic City, New Jersey.

"Macroeconomic factors have changed dramatically over a short period of time, with high inflation, rising interest rates, and supply chain bottlenecks impacting our long-term capital investments," David Hardy, CEO Americas at Ørsted, said in October 2023. "As a result, we have no choice but to cease development of Ocean Wind 1 and Ocean Wind 2."

In May, Orsted agreed to pay New Jersey a $125 million settlement.

The financial problems are not unique to Orsted. Equinor and BP ended a joint venture to develop a project in waters off the coast of New York in January. Equinor took sole ownership of the project and re-entered the market in search of better prices – securing a deal for Empire Wind 1, but not for Empire Wind 2, which remains on pause.

High rates, supply chain struggles

The two main obstacles around building offshore wind farms are interest rates and the supply chain. Offshore wind is capital intensive: it takes a lot of money to build one of these projects in the middle of the sea, and as interest rates rose companies' cost of capital surged. At the same time, raw material and labor costs accelerated out of the pandemic. It's hard to begin construction without a PPA locked in, but if costs rise significantly above initial estimates, the PPA might not be high enough for the project to be feasible.

Much of the supply chain is also highly specialized. There are only a few vessels in the world, for example, that can lay the underwater cables. Turbine installation vessels are also industry-specific. The offshore wind industry is not new globally, but it is in the U.S., meaning just a few years ago a domestic supply chain was virtually nonexistent.

But some of those supply chain constraints are beginning to ease as more and more projects get off the ground. Dominion Energy is building the first Jones Act-compliant turbine installation ship in Brownsville, Texas, which will be used to transport supplies to its Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind project. Once the project is completed, the ship will be contracted out to other companies.

'Not disappearing'

Offshore wind port hubs are also popping up, including the South Brooklyn Marine Terminal, the Port of Virginia and Connecticut's Port of New London. Orsted's domestic supply chain now spans more than 40 states, and work for South Fork Wind took place in New York, South Carolina, Texas, Rhode Island and Connecticut, among other states.

The U.S. Department of the Interior recently approved its tenth offshore wind project – this one in Maryland – in what it called a "major milestone." But the Biden administration's goal of 30 gigawatts of offshore wind power by the end of this decade remains far off.

Vineyard Wind, off the coast of Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket, Massachusetts, is the only other commercial-scale offshore wind project currently powering homes. Developer Avangrid had to pause construction over the summer after a blade broke off and fell into the ocean, with parts ultimately washing ashore on Nantucket beaches. GE Vernova, which made the blade, called it a "manufacturing deviation" related to "insufficient bonding" in the blade.

Two other projects – Block Island Wind Farm and Dominion's two-turbine Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind Pilot Project – are operational, although they are much smaller, powering 17,000 and 3,000 homes, respectively.

The U.S. does have 58 gigawatts of capacity under development, according to American Clean Power, but some of those projects won't come online for years, and there is no guarantee all of them will be built. The industry group estimates that $65 billion will be invested in offshore wind by 2030, supporting 56,000 jobs – up from 1,000 today.

"There are cycles in everything, and now we're going through a negative cycle," said Wood Mackenzie's Lassen, in an interview. "That means that what is now driving the adjustments to price are, instead of success, failures."

But Lassen is encouraged projects are pushing forward.

"The positive thing is that then there is some readjustment," he said. "That means the sector is not disappearing. It's bouncing back, but it is different."