CNBC Daily Open: After the Fed's first cut, where to next?

This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Like what you see? You can subscribe here.

What you need to know today

"Attempted assassination"
Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump is safe and unharmed on Sunday after shots were fired in an incident that "appears to be an attempted assassination," said the Federal Bureau of Investigation. U.S. Secret Service officers "opened fire on a gunman located near the property line" of Trump's Florida golf course, Special Agent Rafael Barros said at a press conference. The suspect is in custody.

Best week of 2024
On Friday, the S&P 500 rose 0.54% and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.65%, giving both indexes their best week of 2024. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.72%. Technology and semiconductor stocks continued driving U.S. markets higher. Meanwhile, the pan-European Stoxx 600 index added 0.76%, and ended the week 1.09% higher.

China's economy is still struggling
A slew of data released Saturday by China's National Bureau of Statistics missed expectations. Retail sales rose by 2.1% in August from a year ago, lower than economists' forecast of a 2.5% growth and the 2.7% increase in July. Industrial production rose by 4.5%, slowing down from 5.1% in July and missing expectations of 4.8% growth.

Discount retailers no more?
The rock-bottom prices of retailers Shein and Temu could be no more if the Biden administration clamps down on their use of a loophole to avoid paying tariffs. Known as the de minimis loophole, the provision allows packages less than $800 to enter the U.S. with less scrutiny and without paying import duties.

[PRO] Christmas for investors
Like children waiting for Christmas, the week investors have been anticipating for years is here. The U.S. Federal Reserve holds its rate-setting meeting on Tuesday to Wednesday. It's expected to cut interest rates – the only question is how much. CNBC's Sarah Min breaks down how a rate cut could affect the S&P 500.

The bottom line

Welcome to U.S. rate cut week!

First, a recap of the dramatic journey interest rates have been through in two years.

The U.S. Federal Reserve's first hike this cycle was in March 2022 when it raised rates by a quarter percentage point, or 25 basis points, bringing the rate into a range of 0.25%-0.5%.

It was the first of many consecutive hikes that attempted to bring down soaring inflation. Rates kept going up in meetings that followed, as inexorably as the passage of time. Furthermore, jumbo hikes of 75 basis points were enacted between June 2022 to November 2022.

Rates have remained at the 5.25%-5.5% range for more than a year.

Finally, that 23-year-high figure's going to go down.

One can never be sure of anything in markets. Say that the market is bullish and a sell-off will happen the next day. 

But given that the rate cut has been so clearly telegraphed by the Fed, it's hard to imagine it not happening.

The only thing that's not clear is whether the Fed will cut by 25 or 50 basis points – and commentators have argued for both sides.

What many are not discussing, however, is the policy trajectory after this meeting. As Cat Stevens sings, the first cut is the deepest. This cut might not be big in terms of basis points, but it will be big in what it signals to markets.

Following this cut could be a trajectory that will change the narrative. How could that look?

Too much and too fast? That'd imply a quickly worsening economy, sparking panic. Too slow and too infrequent? That might stifle the economy.

While the Fed likes to reveal its next step, it's unlikely to illuminate the path ahead. "Given the uncertainty around the outlook, we doubt we will learn a lot about the policy path," wrote Bank of America U.S. economist Aditya Bhave.

So, while the Fed has flagged the first cut, for future moves investors want to make, they should carefully tread.

– CNBC's Pia Singh, Hakyung Kim, Brian Evans and Sarah Min contributed to this story.