Two states that are often considered safe states for Democrats, New York and New Jersey, oversaw some of the biggest electoral shift since the 2020 presidential election. In New Jersey, five counties flipped from blue to red while the Empire State shifted 11 points in Republicans favor. NBC New York’s Adam Kuperstein reports.
New York's electoral votes came in as expected on Tuesday night.
The Empire State's 28 votes went blue for Democrats Kamala Harris and Tim Walz. The state has been reliably Democratic in recent presidential elections, and 2024 was no different. However, in New York City, polling data show that the margin of victory declined from what it was 2016 and 2020.
In this election, Kamala Harris won 67.7% of the vote in New York City while Donald Trump won 30.45% of the vote.
How much did the blue vote dip?
In 2020, Joe Biden won about 76% of the vote and in 2016, Hillary Clinton won about 79%.
The largest shifts in red votes came in the Bronx and Queens. President-elect Trump performed 21 points better in Queens, 22 points better in the Bronx, and 9% better in Manhattan.
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Decision 2024
Staten Island, where Trump has always performed well, further proved itself a stronghold for the former New Yorker.
Elsewhere in New York, Trump overperformed as well. In Nassau County, Trump was up by 5 points; Biden won the county by nearly 10% in 2020. Westchester and Rockland counties both shifted toward Trump by 10 points.
Here are the numbers of votes and how they broke down, according to the city Board of Elections:
NYC 2024 election night results*
- Harris (Democratic party): 1,623,623 votes, 62.88%
- Trump (Republican): 734,063 votes, 28.43%
- Trump (Conservative): 52,231 votes, 2.02%
- Harris (Working Families): 124,517 votes, 4.82%
- Write-in: 47,741 votes, 1.85%
New York City vote totals by candidate
- Harris: 1,748,140 votes, 67.70%
- Trump: 786,294 votes, 30.45%
- Write-in: 47,741 votes, 1.85%
*The results are considered unofficial with 97.63% of ballot scanners reported, as of 6:00 a.m. ET.
How did New York City vote in the 2020 election?
In the 2020 election in New York City, Joe Biden got 76.19% of the vote and Donald Trump received 22.69%.
How did New York City vote in the 2016 election?
In the 2016 election, Hillary Clinton received 78.95% of the vote and Donald Trump received 18.03% in New York City.
What about New Jersey and Connecticut?
Some of the biggest swings toward Trump occurred in the very reliably blue states of New Jersey and Connecticut. New Jersey moved 11 points in Trump's favor, compared to 2020.
In particular, NBC News showed that Passaic County from from Biden at +17 in 2020, to Trump +3 in 2024 — a 20-point gain. Hudson County, located just across the river from Manhattan and is about 40% Hispanic, went from +46 for Biden to +28 for Harris, marking an 18 point shift.
Even in less diverse and more affluent parts of the tri-state, there were still eye-popping returns for Trump. In Bergen County, where Biden won by 16 points in 2020, Harris was only able to win by just three points — a 13-point swing for the GOP.
In Connecticut, Harris was shown to have 55.8% of the vote, to Trump's 42.6%. That's a significant dip from 2020, when Biden won Connecticut with 59% of the vote to Trump’s 39%. In 2016, Hillary Clinton won Connecticut with 55% to Trump’s 41%.
What was the cause of the shift?
It's a question that political experts may be mulling over for some time.
"States with really diverse populations ended up breaking for trump more than we have ever seen in modern politics for a Republican president," said NBC News political analyst Mark Murray. "Looking at diversity, looking at levels of education, at income, you can see areas where Democrats held on — and where they got their clocks cleaned."
Murray noted that immigration had not been "a winning issue for Democrats" over the past two election cycles, and added that scandals involving Democrats in NYC and statewide may have played a role as well.
Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth Poll, said he things the shift toward Trump in the tri-state can also be attributed to the economy and turnout.
"I think there are a lot of Democrats out there for whom economy is top issue but would never vote for Donald Trump, so they just sat this one out," said Murray. "That's why Kamala Harris is behind in the national popular vote, behind in blue states. Voters are not happy with how the economy is going."
