The race for the House is on a knife-edge, with redistricting accounting for some early seat changes but no clear trend about which way control of the chamber is headed.
Republicans came into Election Day holding a 220-212 majority, with three vacancies — two in safe blue seats, one in a safe red seat. Democrats will need to pick up just four seats in order to capture control of the House and, with it, the speaker’s gavel and chairmanships of all committees.
The battlefield is narrow. According to the Cook Political Report, there are 22 “toss-up” seats at the heart of the fight — 10 held by Democrats and 12 held by Republicans. A few dozen more seats are being hotly contested but lean toward one party.
Notably, the blue states of New York and California host 10 ultra-competitive House districts. Those two states are expected to be comfortably won by Harris at the presidential level, but Republicans are investing heavily in holding and flipping downballot seats there.
In New York, Republicans were defending four seats they flipped in 2022, which helped propel them to the House majority. Democratic challenger John Mannion on Tuesday knocked off GOP Rep. Brandon Williams in a Syracuse-based district, while Republican Rep. Mike Lawler held on against former Democratic Rep. Mondaire Jones. The other GOP freshmen fighting for re-election are Reps. Marc Molinaro and Anthony D’Esposito. Meanwhile, Democratic Rep. Pat Ryan beat back a challenge from Republican Alison Esposito in New York's Hudson Valley in a race that was rated “lean Democrat.”
In Pennsylvania, six-term Democratic Rep. Matt Cartwright, a former member of leadership who represents President Joe Biden's hometown of Scranton, lost to Republican Rob Bresnahan.
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And in central and southern California, at least five GOP incumbents are also facing tough re-election bids.
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Freshman Rep. John Duarte is facing Democrat Adam Gray in the 13th District; Rep. David Valadao has a rematch against Democrat Rudy Salas in the 22nd District; Rep. Mike Garcia is fending off a challenge from Democrat George Whitesides in the 27th District; longtime Rep. Ken Calvert is trying to hold off Democrat Will Rollins in the 41st District; and Rep. Michelle Steel is squaring off with Democrat Derek Tran in the 48th district.
Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., and the man who wants to replace him, Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., have spent the past weeks crisscrossing those key House battlegrounds, as well as a slew of swing districts in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona, Nevada and the Pacific Northwest.
When polls opened Tuesday morning, the chair of the House Democratic campaign arm sounded a note of optimism.
“We are in a very strong position,” Rep. Suzan DelBene, D-Wash., told NBC News. “We have great candidates. We are with the American people on policy, in our message. We’ve had the resources to get out the vote and communicate with voters all across the country, and that has all put us in a very strong position today to take back the majority, take back the gavels and make Hakeem Jeffries our next speaker.”
Still, she warned that the battle for the majority could be close and take “a few days” to count all the votes.
But in a speech to supporters in his hometown of Shreveport, Louisiana, Johnson said he would fly late Tuesday to Mar-a-Lago to be with Trump — a sign that the speaker and Republicans feel they are having a good election night. Spokespeople for Majority Leader Steve Scalise, R-La., and GOP Conference Chair Elise Stefanik, R-N.Y., said those leaders were also on their way to see Trump.
"I think it is a night, when they tabulate all this, I am very hopeful that we're going to have not only a larger majority in the House to make my job easier," Johnson told the crowd in Shreveport, "but we retake the Senate and the White House as well. I think that's what's going to happen."
