In a spotlight race that could play a big role in determining the balance of power in the House of Representatives, Democratic Rep. Pat Ryan will top Republican challenger Alison Esposito, NBC News projects, in a campaign that polls showed came down to the wire.
The race was seen as a critical one for Democrats, who suffered stinging losses in other suburban and exurban districts around New York City in the 2022 midterm elections.
Ryan, the incumbent, was elected in that midterm election to represent New York's 18th congressional distract, which stretches from Orange County through a sliver of Ulster to Duchess County including Poughkeepsie and Rhinebeck. He narrowly defeated his GOP opponent, Colin Schmitt, by around 3,500 votes in that election — and 2024 was shaping up to be similarly close.
The bitter contest featured relentless advertising. The Army veteran Ryan did everything he could to hold on against Esposito, a retired NYPD commander who ran for lieutenant governor in 2022. Both candidates stressed one aspect in particular during their campaigns: patriotism.
"This is not going to be a red wave. This is a red, white and blue wave," Esposito told NBC New York in late October.
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"It’s a moment for patriots in our country. For people who believe in democracy, who believe in freedom," Ryan countered with at the time.
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Polls in late October showed a tight race between the two, with an Emerson survey having Ryan up 48%-43%, which was within the margin of error.
