The demographic problems facing Republicans are only too well known. Heck, even Pat Buchanan recognizes it:
"There's a real demographic problem with the Republican Party. It is a heavily white party, quite frankly, and as a share of the electorate, that is diminishing and Hispanics are growing very rapidly, Asians are growing rapidly, and by two-thirds they tend to vote Democratic.
"Young people increasingly are more liberal and more socially moderate, and they move away from the Republican Party "These things are undeniable, the Republican party two months into the Obama Administration, or three months in, is in tough shape."
In fact, a Pew Research study released Thursday shows that nearly one-quarter of all 2008 voters were members of a minority group -- a figure that has doubled over 20 years. And, as Buchanan notes, members of those groups, collectively, aren't interested in voting Republican right now.
If possible, however, the larger problem for the GOP might not be the racial and age groups that are growing. Instead, the bigger obstacle to the electorate returning to conservative issues may be the group that has been in the middle of societal turmoil for nearly four decades now -- the baby boomers.
Though they've been an ideologically "split" generation -- electing one draft-dodging "liberal" president in Bill Clinton and one National Guard-attending "conservative" president in George W. Bush -- as a cohort, boomers support both upending tradition and making government bigger. In short, this makes for a more temperamentally non-conservative -- and self-centered -- group.
The best way to think about baby boomers is that they flocked into the streets and partied at Woodstock for the right to do drugs -- and then practically marched in the streets decades later to demand that the federal government pay for their drugs. And, yes, it was the "conservative" baby boomer that made prescription drugs a Medicare-paid benefit.
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So, given that aging boomers will exert great stress on the federal budget because of Medicare and Social Security, what are the odds that this self-absorbed generation will "do the right thing" and agree to any message that sounds like they should accept lowered benefits in their old age?
As if.
As a result, whichever party holds the White House over the next two decades will have two major responsibilities -- taking care of an aging society and paying off debts to the countries currently holding our debt. That means that government spending won't go down (sorry, GOP) and, sadly, taxes won't either. On the contrary, it is far more likely that taxes will continue to go up in order for the country to pay for the aforementioned entitlement/debt obligations.
The electorate will vote for whichever of two big-government parties will promise to organize this structure the best. That's right: however the GOP jumps back to being competitive at the national level, it will not be the limited government model it professes to be right now.
The baby boomers -- the most significant voting bloc for several more election cycles -- won't allow it to be anything else.
Robert A. George is a New York writer. He blogs at Ragged Thots.
